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Signatures of pandemics in transition

Data from previous pandemics used in a new study to integrate demography, social mixing, and immunity into a mathematical model to establish a plausible range for future COVID-19 incidence and mortality.
Corona demonstration with sign saying "stop corona"
Foto: Colourbox


Pandemics always end, often by the disease becoming endemic to the human population.

NORDEMICS team members Ottar Bjornstad, Nils Chr. Stenseth and their colleagues used data from previous pandemics to integrate demography, social mixing, and immunity into a mathematical model to establish a plausible range for future COVID-19 incidence and mortality.

The full paper 'A general model for the demographic signatures of the transition from pandemic emergence to endemicity' can be read at ScienceAdvances.