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Signatures of pandemics in transition

Data from previous pandemics was used to integrate demography, social mixing, and immunity into a mathematical model to establish a plausible range for future COVID-19 incidence and mortality.
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  • Pathogens, Pandemics and the Development of Nordic Societies (Research Project)
    • Corona demonstration with sign saying "stop corona"
    Foto: Colourbox
    By: Nordemics


    Pandemics always end, often by the disease becoming endemic to the human population.

    NORDEMICS team members Ottar Bjornstad, Nils Chr. Stenseth and their colleagues used data from previous pandemics to integrate demography, social mixing, and immunity into a mathematical model to establish a plausible range for future COVID-19 incidence and mortality.

    The full paper 'A general model for the demographic signatures of the transition from pandemic emergence to endemicity' can be read at ScienceAdvances.