IMFUFA-seminar om tipping points in the climate
Mød Peter Ditlevsen (KU) fra Niels Bohr Institutet, Københavns Universitet, som vil tale om tipping points in the climate.
IPCC (CMIP)-type climate models are used to assess the near future climate changes as a response to the increased greenhouse gas concentration. These models, which are based on as detailed as possible modelling of the flow equations, radiation and physical processes shows a remarkably linear response to the greenhouse forcing. This is despite known feedback responses, which can potentially push the system to a strongly non-linear response, where tipping points are crossed. This is what we believe has happened in the glacial climate reconstructed from paleoclimatic proxies, such as the ice core records. I will present elementary mathematical models of tipping elements in the climate system and discuss the possibility of predicting tipping points.
Seminaret foregår på engelsk.
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